Thursday, August 18, 2005

If you think oil and gas are expensive now, just wait 'till 2008 when the decline from peak oil's plateau becomes recognizable beyond doubt. However, before that NG depletion rate acceleration will likely put rates in double digits before the 2006 election. Millions will pay over $2/gal for their heating oil this winter and likely another 30-40% more next winter, and the one after that, and ....

How many people in the Northeast can be kept warm and fed sustainably? Where will the refugees go? Where will Floridians go when sea level rise floods their state in 100-150 years? How many additional, ever stronger hurricanes?

I don't know why I didn't come up with this before, but the proper name for our illegal war should be Liraq. Another good laugh today is the idea that a tax on gas is needed to make energy markets work correctly, this after years and millions in bribes paid to deregulate, which means no taxation, energy markets in particular. Poor neoliberalcons just don't know what to do.

Finding money to aggressively fund primary energy sources like wave, wind and solar can be easily done by eliminating most of our "national security state" and all subsidies to the current "energy" industry. My conservative estimation is about 1 Trillion dollars annualy would then be available. That's right, "projecting" our Empire consumes half the federal budget. Zero dollars in the federal budget go to the promotion of peace, as peaceful pursuits have always operated as euphemisms for Empire projection or PR.

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

An item of interest today was revelations by top steel executives that corporate energy costs for production were in some cases 40% higher than last year, primarily electricity, whose price is tied to that of NG. With North America's NG production in decline and prices rising in response, energy costs for big steel will continue to escalate rapidly. These rising costs will further big steel's market share losses from price competition and the continual weakening of the dollar. Big steel is one of the few parts of the industrial base that haven't been completely outsourced offshore and represents a vital cog in what remains of the domestic manufacturing sector. The costs that will be passed along will have a telling ripple effect and further push the inflationary spiral caused by rising energy prices and interest rates.

More news of the Big Melt is in regarding the thawing permafrost in Siberia and Alaska whose methane emissions will provide an ample positive feedback to global warming, possibly rapidly. This is certainly not good. Sea level rise is already a bit over an inch/yr in the higher latitudes, which bodes ill for the Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers. It will be interesting to watch how its upcoming summer unfolds.

Gas price is 2.73 at Boston's, but more in SF according to the Chronicle.