My comments on Juan Cole's Informed Comment Blog 11/17

Like Custer, Cheney/Bush will say the course till the end; so, there will be no fundamental policy change until there's regime change in the metropole. In Iraq, there will be ongoing rebellion since the longstanding top dog group is being reduced to the runt of the litter.

Given the tools [tanks, helicopters, other heavy weapons] as you've suggested , the Shia will prevail--the only questions are how long and at what cost? So, from the USA POV, it's a no-win stalemate that can only become a win in the sense that losses and costs are minimized through quick withdrawl, which has essentially been the situation since day 1.

Iraq's extreme destabilization is completely the fault of the US Executive, and the Iraqi people will continue to lose for perhaps as long as a generation. Think Cambodia; and somehow Kissinger is still a free man.

The facts Cheney/Bush et al attempted a al Likud to establish on the ground cannot be maintained; and the "prize" of Iraqi oil will go to the east as it is unlikely any Iraq Oil Ministry chief would live very long if contracts were let to either the US or UK. Iraq itself may become three states, or it might continue as one. IMO, the centrifugal forces will end when the occupiers leave, although violence will continue through the consolidation phase.

If we want to save lives on all sides, there must be a change in Imperial policy; and that will only occur through impeachment, conviction and removal of the primary executive officers. Although I must admit, I don't see Pelosi being able to do the job.